As you likely know, the first Republican debate, sponsored by Fox News, is coming up on August 6, 2015. Fox is using an average of five national polls to determine which ten Republican candidates will appear on stage. Given how the polling is currently shaking out, we can begin to see what the candidate list may look like.

According to analysis from POLITICO, there are at least three candidates in the safe area:

Very Likely
1) Jeb Bush
2) Scott Walker
3) Marco Rubio

Bush, Walker, and Rubio, given recent polling trends, are all-but guaranteed a spot on the stage given how well they’re doing nationally.

The remaining seven spots are still up for grabs and here is a possibility of how they shake out. Some of this is considering the current RealClearPolitics average as well as analysis from the aforementioned POLITICO story.

4) Ben Carson
5) Donald Trump

Carson has displayed staying power and continues to hover pretty strongly in national polls. Donald Trump has only continued to increase his polling strength since his June announcement and the two of them are likely to be on stage in Cleveland.


6) Rand Paul
7) Mike Huckabee
8) Ted Cruz
9) Rick Perry
10) Chris Christie
—– Cut-off—–
11) Rick Santorum
12) Carly Fiorina
13) John Kasich

14) Bobby Jindal
15) Lindsey Graham
16) George Pataki

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In case of a tie for the tenth spot, an eleventh spot will be added to accommodate another candidate.

Source: Which candidates will make the first GOP debate? | 2016 Election Central