House Speaker Paul Ryan has told senior Republicans that he won’t change the main pillars of his plan to repeal and partially replace Obamacare, even as Republicans search for tweaks that can break their logjam over the legislation.
With a steady trickle of Republicans coming out against the bill, Ryan is sending the message he won’t drop any of its four main elements — refundable tax credits, health savings accounts, the phaseout of Medicaid expansion and the ban on insurers denying coverage over pre-existing conditions — according to a senior Republican aide.
But Ryan is open to tinkering around the edges of some of these policies, such as adding a work requirement for Medicaid or changing the timeline for phasing out the expansion, according to the aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Public posturing by conservatives and moderates in Ryan’s party is leaving little middle ground for compromise, and it’s unclear whether modest revisions will be enough to secure passage of the measure.
“Given how narrowly we’ve threaded this needle,” said Representative Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, “any abrupt change would probably be — could be a deal killer.”
Representative Phil Roe of Tennessee, an influential voice in the party on health care who co-chairs the GOP Doctors Conference, said several significant changes to the health care plan were likely, including an increase in tax credits for people ages 55-65, because costs “are pretty high” for them.
He said the income caps for the subsidies would likely come down from $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples — perhaps to $50,000 and $130,000, respectively.
“I think there’s been some worry about higher-income people” who don’t need the subsidies getting them, he said, adding that work requirements for Medicaid will “probably get in there.”
The House Budget Committee, which advanced the measure Thursday, backed four non-binding motions, including one that suggests changing the tax credit to better assist poor people trying to buy insurance and one limiting who can sign up for Medicaid. Budget Chairwoman Diane Black said after the meeting that she didn’t know whether the House Rules Committee would consider such amendments, but that leaders are open to changes.
House Republicans will hold a policy conference on Friday to discuss proposed changes, Roe said. A lot of the final details are “still fluid,” Roe said.
President Donald Trump insists that he is behind the bill, but some of his backers are encouraging him to abandon it, too.
‘On Track and On Schedule’
“We are on track and on schedule,” insisted Ryan, voicing determination Thursday at a news conference to keep to a timetable for bringing the bill to the floor next week for a vote.
Trump made doing away with the Affordable Care Act a major promise in this presidential campaign, and it’s something congressional Republicans have been promising for six years.
But keeping that promise has become a tough test of their Republican-controlled government. It’s also become a big personal test for Ryan as speaker; his non-stop media blitz to defend the bill in recent days has only further entwined his reputation with its fate.
“Today there are a lot of undecideds and lean noes. It depends on what the president decides to do and how strongly he decides to support the package as is,” Representative Joe Barton of Texas, vice chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said at an event sponsored by Roll Call. “If we make no changes to it, I would say that it will not pass the House.”
Many conservatives say what is on paper now smacks too much of Obamacare itself, and doesn’t do enough to cut Medicaid and other costs. They are pushing for such changes as moving up the bill’s 2020 freeze on Medicaid enrollment expansion to 2018. But even if those changes occur, some say they still would worry this bill is destined to die in the Senate anyway — something Senate Republicans themselves have been predicting will happen.
Not Enough Votes
“Right now, there are not the votes,” said Representative Dave Brat of Virginia on CNN Thursday morning. He noted that many conservative think tanks and conservative groups have come out aggressively against the bill, saying it is too much like Obamacare.
After Brat and two other House Republicans on the Budget panel bucked Ryan and voted Thursday against advancing the bill, the trio won praise from outside conservative groups.
“It makes no sense for Speaker Ryan and Chairman Diane Black to force GOP lawmakers to walk the plank and vote for a bad bill that they’ve already admitted needs to be changed,” said Club for Growth president David McIntosh, in a statement.
The other two were Republicans voting “no” were Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Gary Palmer of Alabama.
At the same time, other House Republicans say the bill goes too far, saying it would hurt seniors and low income constituents — and by inference their own political futures. This week’s Congressional Budget Office report saying there would be 24 million fewer insured by 2026 has exacerbated some of those fears.