Political science professor Helmut Norpoth, who has accurately called the results of the last five presidential elections, still asserts that Donald Trump has an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton despite Clinton being ahead in the polls.
Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of the popular vote for every election since 1996, including the 2000 race where Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush took the presidency.
“It usually turns out that the candidate who does better in his party’s primary beats the other guy who does less well,” said Norpoth, adding that Trump’s margin of victory in New Hampshire and South Carolina compared to Clinton (who lost in New Hampshire) was crucial to his model.
The other factor is the “swing of the pendulum,” which makes it far more likely for a change of government if one party has been in power for two terms.
Norpoth said he has gone “all in” on a Donald Trump victory and is sticking with his bet.
“There are also quite a few colleagues of mine who have a prediction that Trump is going to make it,” added the professor.