Hillary: Trending to Below 50%
By Eileen McGann On June 19, 2015
While Hillary still has a big lead over the rest of the Democratic field, she is trending rapidly towards that dangerous territory — below the vital 50% threshold.
Given the weakness and lack of funding for her Democratic opposition, it is tremendously significant that about half of the party’s primary voters in key early states do not vote for her.
In Iowa, the first contest, she has slipped from 60% on May 7 in the Quinnipiac poll to only 54% in the June 15th Morning Consult survey. That means, of course, that 46% of the likely Iowa caucus goers choose not to back her at this stage.
In New Hampshire, the drop is even greater. The Bloomberg/St. Anselm Poll of May 10th gave Hillary 62% of the vote among likely primary voters. But the June 15th Morning Consult poll has her down to 44% of the vote. In the Granite State, which powered her 2008 recovery from her Iowa defeat, 56% of the voters won’t back her candidacy. Now that’s very significant.
Even in South Carolina, where her support tis anchored by a large black vote, she draws only 56% of the vote in the June 15th Morning Consult survey…
As the debates loom, when Sanders and the others will showcase their candidacies, the erosion in Hillary’s support will likely continue and even accelerate. Look for her to be under 50% in the post-debate polls, no matter how well she does.
At this point, there is a reasonable chance that she may not win Iowa or New Hampshire. What happens then? The Democratic Party will fly into a panic at the prospect of Bernie Sanders walking away with the nomination….